Some reflections on the nation’s political past

There is no doubt that President Goodluck Jonathan is at the moment thinking deeply on the structure of his government for the next four years. His party, the victorious Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as expected now, must have submitted the names of those who would benefit from the spoils of electoral war in the usual selfish tradition of‘winners take all‘. I am sure that the election victory was Jonathan‘s even if the party through which he won is the PDP. While the choice of his ministers and his advisers (subject to constitutional requirement is entirely at his discretion, the ability to prevent a strong team will write his own story after he has left office.

Within the next two weeks, President Jonathan will have the unique opportunity to reflect carefully on the political drama in the past one hundred years. In 2014 (three years in his reign), Nigeria would be one hundred years old as a nation following the amalgamation of the Northern and Southern Provinces by the British administrators, Lord Luggard and the name Nigeria as given by his mistress. Before amalgamation in 1914, the Caliphate had established its religious and cultural hegemony in the Hausa-Fulani parts of the North, with its tentacles spread into Ilorin (Yoruba West). Its attempt through its hold on Ilorin to subjugate the whole Yorubaland was successfully and finally checked in the Oshogbo War (1840). Later, inter-territorial flourishing trade developed between the North and the West in kola nuts and imported articles through Lagos. Before amalgamation and after the series of internal wars among the Yoruba, British arms had subdued Ijebu_Ode to allow free trade into the interior. The British also bombarded Oyo town to gain total control of Yoruba area. Thus, from Lagos port to the far north, the peaceful atmosphere (pax Britannia) has encouraged profitable trade between the North and the South and it also encouraged movements of people.

In the Eastern part of the country, the sturdy Ibo race had been able to extend its dominance into areas of its neighbors through trade and not arms. Ibos were the dominant tribe in Port_Harcourt (Rivers State) until the Biafran Civil War (1967_70) when Ibo properties were reported ‘captured‘, with the connivance of ravaging Nigerian soldiers. The picture painted was that of a peaceful and prosperous South and a flourishing North (in agriculture) before amalgamation of 1914 (presumably for easy administration). However, for whatever reason, the ‘amalgamation thing‘ was not favoured by the rising elite of the North in the 1940s and the 50s. The various debates in the Northern House of Assembly in the 1940s were on the intrusion of unwanted Southerners in the Northern ways of life, religion and culture.

The closed minds of some Northern leaders led to the formation of the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) in the 1950s, based in the North with its concept of One North, one destiny. It is not incorrect to say that the mood in the South towards the North was ambivalent. Many Southerners have settled in the North without molest, had acquired properties and established flourishing businesses before the brutal killings of Easterners before the civil war of the 1960s. The North political interest in the South was mainly through working alliance with parties in the South. Before the civil war, it was the NPC and the faction of Action Group; after the Civil war, it was NPN (Northern dominated) and the NPP of Dr. Azikiwe. In a Government of National Unity (GNU) while the post of Independence Alliance of NPC and NCNC, the effort failed under the crazy boots of army insurgency. It should be remembered that between 1960 and 1999 (with the exception of 1979-1983), general indiscipline and ambition had propelled the military into politics.

The coup of January 1966 portrayed political immaturity of five army majors (majority Ibo) and the callousness of the operation (sectional killing) of senior army officers showed desperate political ambition of the coup leaders. The lesson of the coup is that whatever the South can do, the North can even do it better. Within the period between amalgamation in 1914 and Independence in 1960, some significant political events developed to awaken and deepen democratic principles. Regional Premiers emerged (through elections) who were responsible for day-to-day governance of their regions (under watchful eyes of British Officials - LT Governors). The leaders of the North (NPC) in reacting to the motion of Anthony Enahoro that Nigeria should get Independence in 1953 had issued their 8th Point Programme. The Programme could be described as what could be regarded as True Federalism or Regionalism.

Also, before the civil war, the Eastern leaders (led by Ojukwu) crafted what was regarded as Aburi Declaration – a document which was a form of loose federation. It was agreed to but later repudiated after sober reflection by the then Federal Executive Council. What followed is now a part of the nations sordid past – a damaging civil war and the creation of twelve states which have been increased to thirty six. The present state before President Jonathan is what looks like an amorphous structure, badly designed, precariously managed and costly, by all standards. States have been created but some (except in South-West, South-East and North-West) which are neither cultural nor ethnically homogenous; some contain assertive majorities and restless but often rebellious minorities. All these states (except only a few) are neither economically viable nor politically stable. Inspite of free flow of free funds of monthly allocation from oil revenue, it is a sad tale of poverty and lack of development. There is a need to look at the structure and the historical background (terrain).

True Federalism does not mean political break-ups; it means recognizing structure that could be self sustaining (oil or no oil). The present structure is acceptable to those who see government in sharing of loots or sharing the national cake without baking it. Such is possible under the present method of allocating national revenue. If the centre is over burdened, it becomes ineffective.

The scenario before President Jonathan is: the country‘s structure, the cost and its effective management. The problems of security and killings (mostly Southerners in the North) loom large.

Can he and his party solve the problems alone? The experience in the last twelve years did not give any positive answer.